The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Understanding Pro-cyclical Mortality

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Stevens, Ann H.; Miller, Douglas L.; Page, Marianne E.; Filipski, Mateusz
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20130057
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 279-311
• 关键词: nursing-homes; recessions good; HEALTH; care; outcomes; QUALITY; LABOR; long

摘要

It is well-known that mortality rates are pro-cyclical. In this paper, we attempt to understand why. We find little evidence that cyclical changes in individuals' own employment-related behavior drives the relationship; own-group employment rates are not systematically related to own-group mortality. Further, most additional deaths that occur when the economy is strong are among the elderly, particularly elderly women and those residing in nursing homes. We also demonstrate that staffing in nursing homes moves countercyclically. These findings suggest that cyclical fluctuations in the quality of health care may be a critical contributor to cyclical movements in mortality.