Good Cop, Bad Cop: Using Civilian Allegations to Predict Police Misconduct

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rozema, Kyle; Schanzenbach, Max
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20160573
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 225-268
• 关键词: complaints; OFFICERS

摘要

In response to high-profile cases of police misconduct, reformers are calling for greater use of civilian allegations in identifying potential problem officers. This paper applies an Empirical Bayes framework to data on civilian allegations and civil rights litigation in Chicago to assess the predictive value of civilian allegations for serious future misconduct. We find a strong relationship between allegations and future civil rights litigation, especially for the very worst officers. The worst 1 percent of officers, as measured by civilian allegations, generate almost 5 times the number of payouts and over 4 times the total damage payouts in civil rights litigation. These findings suggest that intervention efforts could be fruitfully concentrated among a relatively small group.