Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Handley, Kyle; Kamal, Fariha; Monarch, Ryan
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20210051
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 208-238
• 关键词: vertical specialization; intermediate inputs; GROWTH; TRADE

摘要

We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent. ( JEL F13, F14, F23, L14)