Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choicest

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bottan, Nicolas; Perez-truglia, Ricardo
• 署名单位: Cornell University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20230641
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 459-500
• 关键词: inflation-expectations; price

摘要

Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on their effect on market choices. We provide causal evidence using a large-scale, high- stakes field experiment in the United States. We sent letters about home price trends to 57,910 homeowners who listed their homes. These letters contained randomized information creating nondeceptive, exogenous variation in home price expectations. Consistent with economic theory, higher expectations reduced selling probability. Behavior was highly elastic: a 1 percentage point increase in expectations caused a 2.63 percentage point reduction in the probability of selling the property within 12 weeks. ( JEL C93, D83, D84, R31)