The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Holland, Stephen P.; Mansur, Erin T.; Yates, Andrew J.
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Greensboro; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200120
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 316-344
• 关键词: market; POLICY; pollution; benefits; prices; tax

摘要

Electric vehicles have a unique potential to transform personal transportation. We analyze this transition with a dynamic model capturing falling costs of electric vehicles, decreasing pollution from electricity, and increasing vehicle substitutability. Our calibration to the US market shows a transition from gasoline vehicles is not optimal at current substitutability: a gasoline vehicle production ban would have large deadweight loss. At higher substitutability, a ban can reduce deadweight loss from vehicle mix and adoption timing inefficiencies. A cumulative gasoline vehicle production quota has smaller deadweight loss, and an electric vehicle purchase subsidy is more robust to regulator misperceptions about substitutability.