The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia†

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rossi, Pauline; Godard, Mathilde
• 署名单位: Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200466
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 488-518
• 关键词: Private transfers; countries; income; parents

摘要

The old-age security motive for fertility postulates that people's needs for old-age support raise the demand for children. We exploit the extension of social pensions in Namibia during the 1990s to pro-vide a quasi-experimental quantification of this widespread idea. The reform eliminated inequalities in pension coverage and ben-efits across regions and ethnic groups. Combining differences in pre-reform pensions and differences in exposure across cohorts, we show that pensions substantially reduce fertility, especially in late reproductive life. The results suggest that improving social protec-tion for the elderly could go a long way in fostering fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J14, O15)