Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Link, Sebastian; Menkhoff, Manuel; Peichl, Andreas; Schuele, Paul
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220530
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 194-222
• 关键词: taxation; POLICY; incentives; GOVERNMENT; RISK; cuts

摘要

This paper estimates the causal effect of corporate tax hikes on firm investment based on more than 1,400 local tax changes. By observing planned and realized investment volumes in a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we can study how tax hikes induce firms to revise their investment decisions. On average, the share of firms that invest less than previously planned increases by 3 percentage points after a tax hike. This effect is twice as large during recessions.