The Long-Run Effects of California's Paid Family Leave Act on Women's Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bailey, Martha; Byker, Tanya; Patel, Elena; Ramnath, Shanthi
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Middlebury College; Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200277
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 401-431
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; EMPLOYMENT; legislation; policies; program; CHOICE; HEALTH; birth

摘要

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California's 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women's employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings a decade after they gave birth. (JEL H24, J13, J16, J31, J32, K31)