Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Desmet, Klaus; Kopp, Robert E.; Kulp, Scott A.; Nagy, David Krisztian; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Strauss, Benjamin H.
• 署名单位: Southern Methodist University; Southern Methodist University; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Princeton University; Princeton University; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180366
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 444-486
• 关键词: sea-level rise; CLIMATE-CHANGE; storm-surge; impacts; 21st-century; adaptation; damage; MODEL

摘要

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.