The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gillitzer, Christian; Prasad, Nalini
• 署名单位: University of Sydney; University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160244
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 234-269
• 关键词: economic-fluctuations; partisanship; perceptions; CONSEQUENCES; confidence; recession; BEHAVIOR; MARKETS; models

摘要

We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending.