Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dell, Melissa; Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A.
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.66
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 66-95
• 关键词: climate-change; geography; weather; institutions; mortality; VIOLENCE; burden; output

摘要

This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries.