Flip-Flopping, Primary Visibility, and the Selection of Candidates

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Agranov, Marina
• 署名单位: California Institute of Technology
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20130036
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 61-85
• 关键词: general-election outcomes; Electoral competition; divisive primaries; voting model; motivations

摘要

We present an incomplete information model of two-stage elections in which candidates can choose different platforms in primaries and general elections. Voters do not directly observe the chosen platforms, but infer the candidates' ideologies from observing candidates' campaigns. The ability of voters to detect candidates' types depends on the visibility of the race. This model captures two patterns: the post-primary moderation effect, in which candidates pander to the party base during the primary and shift to the center in the general election; and the divisive-primary effect, which refers to the detrimental effect of hard-fought primaries on a party's general-election prospects.