Voter Turnout and Preference Aggregation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kawai, K. E., I; Toyama, Yuta; Watanabe, Yasutora
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Waseda University; University of Tokyo
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190063
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 548-586
• 关键词: political responsiveness; PARTICIPATION; ELECTIONS; PARADOX; MODEL; INITIATIVES; INFORMATION; outcomes

摘要

We study how voter turnout affects the aggregation of preferences in elections. Under voluntary voting, election outcomes disproportionately aggregate the preferences of voters with low voting cost and high preference intensity. We show identification of the correlation structure among preferences, costs, and perceptions of voting efficacy, and explore how the correlation affects preference aggregation. Using 2004 US presidential election data, we find that young, low-income, less-educated, and minority voters are underrepresented. All of these groups tend to prefer Democrats, except for the less educated. Democrats would have won the majority of the electoral votes if all eligible voters had turned out.