An Empirical Dynamic Model of Trade with Consumer Accumulation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Piveteau, Paul
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190051
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 23-63
• 关键词: Exporter dynamics; sunk costs; Heterogeneity; explanations; inference; QUALITY; margin; prices

摘要

This paper develops a dynamic structural model of trade in which firms slowly accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual firms and a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo estimator, the model predicts lower survival rates for new exporters and estimates low entry costs of exporting-less than half of those estimated in the absence of consumer accumulation. Using simulations and out-of-sample predictions, I show that the introduction of such frictions and the reduction in estimated entry costs allow the model to match important facts regarding the aggregate response of international trade to shocks.