Church Tax Exemption and Structure of Religious Markets: A Dynamic Structural Analysis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Corbi, Raphael; Sanches, Fabio Miessi
• 署名单位: Universidade de Sao Paulo; Getulio Vargas Foundation
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20210238
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 131-163
• 关键词: POLITICAL-ECONOMY; empirical-model; entry; CHOICE; COMPETITION; Counterfactuals; secularization; identification; determinants; income

摘要

We study the effects of church tax exemptions on the structure of religious markets. Using the Brazilian experience as a showcase, we develop and estimate a dynamic entry model of religious organizations based on temple opening and closure in geographically isolated markets. Counterfactual simulations suggest that tax exemptions stimulated entry by all religions, but disproportionately benefited evangelical denominations: The evangelical share of temples increased by approximately 20 percentage points. By combining difference-in-differences estimates with model-based counterfactuals, we show that these policies also increased the support for evangelical caucus politicians, raising their vote share by 8 percent in the 2018 election. (JEL C73, D43, H25, O15, Z12)