An easier way to calibrate
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Fudenberg, D; Levine, DK
署名单位：
Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
刊物名称：
GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
ISSN/ISSBN：
0899-8256
DOI：
10.1006/game.1999.0726
发表日期：
1999
页码：
131-137
关键词：
摘要：
Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that K-initialized myopic strategies are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first initialize by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t, the minmax strategy in a static game. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73, C63, D83. (C) 1999 Academic Press.