Risk and household grain management in developing countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Park, Albert
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01124.x
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 1088-1115
• 关键词: changing food-prices; cash crop production; marketed surplus; consumption; constraints; welfare; credit; INEQUALITY; storage; models

摘要

A dynamic model is presented of a household's joint production, storage, and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields. Grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk. Model solutions calibrated to Chinese data show that grain's consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit, the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk-coping, and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain.