On the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment: New experimental evidence regarding Linda

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Charness, Gary; Karni, Edi; Levin, Dan
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Johns Hopkins University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2009.09.003
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 551-556
• 关键词: Conjunction fallacy; Representativeness bias; Group consultation; incentives

摘要

This paper reports the results Of a series of experiments designed to rest whether and to what extent individuals Succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Tversky and Kahneman (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that repotted by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when subjects are allowed to consult with other subjects, these proportions fall dramatically, particularly When the size of the group rises from two to three. These findings cast serious doubts about the importance and robustness of such violations for the understanding of real-life economic decisions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All tights reserved.