Shunning uncertainty: The neglect of learning opportunities

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Trautmann, Stefan T.; Zeckhauser, Richard J.
• 署名单位: Tilburg University; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2013.01.001
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 44-55
• 关键词: risk; uncertainty; learning; INFORMATION; gambler's fallacy

摘要

Financial, managerial, and medical decisions often involve alternatives whose possible outcomes have uncertain probabilities. In contrast to alternatives whose probabilities are known, these uncertain alternatives offer the benefits of learning. In repeat-choice situations, such learning brings value. If probabilities appear favorable (unfavorable), a choice can be repeated (avoided). In a series of experiments involving bets on the colors of poker chips drawn from bags, decision makers often prove to be blind to the learning opportunities offered by uncertain probabilities. They forgo significant expected payoffs when they shun uncertain alternatives in favor of known ones. Worse, when information is revealed, many make choices contrary to learning. Priming with optimal strategies offers little improvement. Such decision makers violate identified requirements for making rational decisions. (c) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.