Beyond fictitious play beliefs: Incorporating pattern recognition and similarity matching

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Spiliopoulos, Leonidas
• 署名单位: University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2013.04.005
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 69-85
• 关键词: Learning; Pattern recognition; beliefs; repeated games; memory; Cognitive models; Behavioral game theory; ACT-R

摘要

Belief models capable of detecting 2- to 5-period patterns in repeated games by matching the current historical context to similar realizations of past play are presented. The models are implemented in a cognitive framework, ACT-R, and vary in how they implement similarity-based categorization-using either an exemplar or a prototype approach. Empirical estimation is performed on the elicited-belief data from two experiments (Nyarko and Schotter, 2002; Rutstrom and Wilcox, 2009) using repeated games with a unique, albeit significantly different, stage mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium. Model comparisons are performed by cross-validation both within and between these two datasets, and using data from completely unrelated non-strategic tasks. Subjects' beliefs are best described by 2-period pattern detection. Parameter estimates exhibited considerable instability across the two belief-elicitation datasets, and surprisingly, using median values from a wide variety of unrelated studies led to better predictions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.