Curbing the Credit Cycle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aikman, David; Haldane, Andrew G.; Nelson, Benjamin D.
• 署名单位: Bank of England
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12113
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1072-1109
• 关键词: Financial crises; moral hazard; equilibrium; booms; RISK

摘要

Credit cycles have been a characteristic of advanced economies for over 100years. On average, a sustained pick-up in the ratio of credit to GDP has been highly correlated with banking crises. The boom phases of the cycle are characterised by large deviations in credit from trend. A range of mechanisms can generate these effects, each of which has strategic complementarity between banks at its core. Macro-prudential policy could curb these credit cycles, both through raising the cost of maintaining risky portfolios and through an expectations channel that operates via banks' perceptions of other banks' actions.