Staying ahead and getting even: Risk attitudes of experienced poker players

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eil, David; Lien, Jaimie W.
• 署名单位: George Mason University; Tsinghua University
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2014.04.008
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 50-69
• 关键词: Decision-making under uncertainty; Reference-dependence; experience; RISK

摘要

Frequent online poker players with extensive experience calculating probabilities and expected values might be expected to behave as Expected Utility maximizers, in that small shocks to their wealth would not affect risk preferences (Rabin, 2000). By contrast, reference-dependent loss aversion (as in Prospect Theory) (Koszegi and Rabin, 2006; Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) predicts that risk aversion decreases as wealth moves away from the reference point in either direction. In terms of continuing to play, as well as a more aggressive playing style, we find strong evidence for the break-even effect, the increased pursuit of risk as a player is losing within a session. Players' behavior also appears consistent with existing evidence on reference-dependent labor supply, in their tendency to reduce effort and risk-taking in response to being ahead. Our findings provide evidence for reference-dependent behavior in a flexible, high-skilled setting, under conditions of well-understood monetary risk. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.