How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Herz, Holger; Schunk, Daniel; Zehnder, Christian
• 署名单位: University of Zurich; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; University of Lausanne
• 刊物名称: GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0899-8256
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2013.11.001
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 1-23
• 关键词: innovation; entrepreneurship; overconfidence; experiment

摘要

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing on innovative activity. While overoptimism is positively associated with innovation, judgmental overconfidence is negatively linked to innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.