REFERENCE HEALTH AND THE DEMAND FOR MEDICAL CARE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harris, Matthew C.; Kohn, Jennifer L.
• 署名单位: University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Drew University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12554
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 2812-2842
• 关键词: dynamic-stochastic model; LIFE; expectations; insurance; DECISION; utility; IMPACT; GROWTH; RISK

摘要

We propose that health in prior periods, termed reference health, is theoretically and empirically relevant to the demand for medical care. To address non-normality in the distributions of medical care spending, consumption, and health, we use a conditional density estimator nested in a finite mixture framework. We find that reference health can help explain the variation in spending among individuals with the same contemporaneous health, particularly in the top tail of the spending distribution. We demonstrate that omitting reference health understates the potential cost-savings of healthy aging initiatives by 50%.