BOOM GOES THE PRICE: GIANT RESOURCE DISCOVERIES AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harding, Torfinn; Stefanski, Radoslaw; Toews, Gerhard
• 署名单位: Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of St Andrews; New Economic School
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaa016
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1715-1728
• 关键词: Dutch disease; rate fluctuations; PRODUCTIVITY; sector

摘要

We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. A giant discovery with the value of 10% of a country's GDP appreciates the real exchange rate by 1.5% within ten years following the discovery. The appreciation starts before production begins and the non-traded component of the real exchange rate drives the appreciation. Labour reallocates from the traded goods sector to the non-traded goods sector, leading to changes in labour productivity. These findings provide direct evidence on the channels central to the theories of the Dutch disease and the Balassa-Samuelson effect.