TRANSITIONAL GROWTH AND TRADE WITH FRICTIONS: A STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Anderson, James E.; Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto, V
• 署名单位: Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Nottingham; Drexel University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaa020
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1583-1607
• 关键词: general equilibrium-analysis; gravity; AGREEMENTS; geography; DYNAMICS; income; terms; GOODS

摘要

We build and estimate a structural model of transitional growth and trade in a many-country world. The gravity model of trade is combined with a capital accumulation mechanism driving transition between steady states. Trade affects growth through changes in consumer and producer prices. Simultaneously, capital accumulation affects trade directly through changes in country size and indirectly through changes in the incidence of trade costs. Theory maps to an econometric system that identifies the parameters of the model and establishes causal links between trade, capital accumulation and income. Counterfactual trade liberalisation magnifies static gains by a dynamic path multiplier of 1.8.