Technology Adoption, Mortality and Population Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hejkal, John; Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae079
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 584-610
• 关键词: demographic-transition; life expectancy; fertility; decline; HEALTH; GROWTH; MODEL

摘要

We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics, emphasising individuals' decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Expanded use of this technology reduces the cost of adoption and confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike Malthusian theories based solely on income, ours is consistent with the observed disconnect between mortality and income. Unlike Beckerian theories of fertility, ours accounts for the observed acceleration in population.