Mental Capabilities, Heterogeneous Trading Behaviour and Performance in an Experimental Asset Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hefti, Andreas; Heinke, Steve; Schneider, Frederic
• 署名单位: Zurich University of Applied Sciences; University of Zurich; University of Fribourg; University of Cambridge
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf003
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 2161-2191
• 关键词: cognitive-ability; risk-aversion; intelligence; INFORMATION; bubbles; aggregation; reflection; crashes; trader; MODEL

摘要

We study how variations in two mental capabilities-analytical capability (quantitative reasoning) and mentalising (assessing others' behaviour)-drive heterogeneity in evaluations of identical information about an asset's fundamental value and past prices. Our mental framework aligns with regularities observed in experimental asset markets, providing a cognitive basis for heterogeneous trading behaviour. Applied to an experimental market, it predicts that trading, performance and bubble-crash patterns crucially depend on mental capability differences. Traders proficient in both capabilities succeed most, while performance is otherwise non-monotonic in capabilities. Experimental results support these predictions, highlighting the important role of mental capabilities in asset markets.