Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Klein, MW; Marion, NP
• 署名单位: Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(97)00048-5
• 发表日期: 1997
• 页码: 387-404
• 关键词: devaluation; Exchange rate regime; Latin America

摘要

This paper is an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange-rate pegs in 16 Latin American countries and Jamaica. We identify factors that influence peg duration using legit analysis. The real exchange rate and the level of international liquidity are significant determinants of the monthly likelihood of devaluation. Structural variables, such as the openness of an economy and its geographical trade concentration, and political variables, such as changes in the executive, also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation. There is some evidence that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.