High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kaminsky, GL; Leiderman, L
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Tel Aviv University; Stockholm University; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(97)00062-X
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 191-214
• 关键词: credibility crisis; Currency crisis; stabilization programs

摘要

High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.