Who is afraid of political instability?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Campos, NF; Nugent, JB
• 署名单位: University of Southern California; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Newcastle University - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00181-X
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 157-172
• 关键词: economic growth; political instability; Granger causality

摘要

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, much of the blame has been assigned to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-run relation between political instability and economic growth but finds no evidence of such a relationship. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a contemporaneous negative relationship but also that, in the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the group of African countries plays the determining role. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.