Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Block, SA
• 署名单位: Tufts University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00184-5
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 205-228
• 关键词: africa; ELECTIONS; political business cycles

摘要

This paper presents cross-country evidence that political business cycles are alive and well in the nascent democracies of the developing world. Africa provides fertile ground for the study of political business cycles. This paper uncovers systematic electorally timed interventions in five monetary and four fiscal policy variables in a panel of African countries. These findings are consistent with the predictions of rational opportunistic political business cycle theory. If Africa's increasingly frequent elections are associated with reversals of fiscal and monetary policy reform, there is a potential conflict between political and economic reform. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.