Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ahmed, S
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00073-7
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 181-202
• 关键词: economic fluctuations; Latin America; Exchange rate regimes; dollarization

摘要

This paper studies the sources of economic fluctuations and their implications for exchange rate regime choice in key Latin American countries. In general, external shocks play a limited role in driving output fluctuations in these countries; this absence of common business cycles undermines the case for fixed exchange rates. On the other hand, although there is some evidence that real exchange rates depreciate in response to adverse external shocks, this depreciation, in turn, tends to contract output in the short ran. This suggests that exchange rate rigidity may not be as costly for these economies as conventional economic theory predicts. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.