Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hong, KS; Tornell, A
• 署名单位: Ewha Womans University; California State University System; California State University Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.12.012
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 71-96
• 关键词: currency crises; insolvency; illiquidity; RECOVERY

摘要

Using a comprehensive data set of over 100 developing countries, this paper examines how economies recover from a currency crisis. Some of the regularities found are listed below. First, it takes less than 3 years for the GDP growth rate to fully recover its tranquil-period average. The level of GDP, however, remains permanently below its initial trend, suggesting that the shocks underlying a crisis are persistent. Second, the credit crunch problem lasts much longer than the reduction in the GDP growth rate. Third, the pre-crisis credit expansion and reserve inadequacy, which have been widely recognized as the main causes of a crisis, also are closely related to the extent of the post-crisis recession. Fourth, crisis episodes that are caused mainly by illiquidity, rather than by insolvency, tend to exhibit a sharp recovery. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.