The transition to a globalized economy: Poverty, human capital and the informal sector in a structuralist CGE model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gibson, B
• 署名单位: University of Vermont
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.08.004
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 60-94
• 关键词: Human capital; Informal sector; computable general equilibrium modeling

摘要

Recent econometric evidence suggests that trade liberalization has an elusive relationship to growth and income distribution. This paper provides an explanation for these results via numerical simulations of a dynamic structuralist CGE. The conclusion is that if families become too poor to finance human capital accumulation, or the state too stingy to supply it at a reasonable cost, exports of skill-intensive goods can become uncompetitive and the transition to openness may involve increasing poverty, unemployment and stagnation. The model design incorporates an informal sector as well as accumulation of human capital. The paper simulates two trajectories, a green path in which per capita income grows steadily with a rapid rate of human capital accumulation and a reduction in the level of economic informality. A second, or red' path is also possible, however, with a growth rate that is much lower, an expanding informal sector and an inadequate rate of human capital formation. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.