High growth and low consumption in East Asia: How to improve welfare while avoiding financial failures

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Feltenstein, Andrew; Rochon, Celine; Shamloo, Maral
• 署名单位: National Science Foundation (NSF); University of Oxford; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.02.001
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 25-36
• 关键词: growth; Financial failures; CHINA; general equilibrium

摘要

This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation. This investment hunger can lead to unanticipated declines in the returns to investment, and resulting financial insolvencies. Private consumption remains low and there are concerns that high savings rates cannot be sustained. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model and apply it to a stylized Asian economy, loosely based upon China. We calibrate a benchmark equilibrium, and carry out various counterfactual simulations to analyze alternative policies, in particular tax cuts and exchange rate revaluations, as instruments in increasing private consumption while avoiding bank failures. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.