The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Strobl, Eric
• 署名单位: Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; University West Indies Mona Jamaica; University West Indies Saint Augustine
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.12.002
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 130-141
• 关键词: Hurricanes; Economic growth

摘要

In this paper we investigate the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters in developing countries by examining hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions. Our innovation in this regard is to employ a wind field model on hurricane track data to arrive at a more scientifically based index of potential local destruction. This index allows us to identify damages at a detailed geographical level, compare hurricanes' destructiveness, as well as identify the countries that are most affected, without having to rely on potentially questionable monetary loss estimates. Combining our destruction index with macroeconomic data we show that the average hurricane strike caused output to fall by at least 0.83 percentage points in the region, although this depends on controlling for local economic characteristics of the country affected and what time of the year the storm strikes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.