Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: van der Ploeg, Frederick; Venables, Anthony J.
• 署名单位: University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.03.001
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 229-243
• 关键词: Absorptive capacity; Absorption constraints; irreversible investment; Windfall; natural resources; Dutch disease; Economic development

摘要

The permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange, such as that from a resource discovery. Absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment, and investment in structures requires non-traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock. This, particularly when combined with intra-sectoral capital immobility, delays adjustment and creates short run 'Dutch disease' symptoms as the real exchange rate sharply appreciates and overshoots its long run value. Optimal revenue management requires investing in the domestic non-traded goods sector and a slow build up of consumption. Accumulation of foreign assets adjusts to accommodate the time-paths of domestic consumption and investment. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.