Trade and thy neighbor's war

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.009
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 178-195
• 关键词: International trade; CONFLICT; Regional spillovers

摘要

This paper is the first to examine the spillover effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings based on different measures of regional conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and types of conflict for 145 countries over 1948-2006-reveal a significant negative effect of both intrastate and international conflicts on the bilateral trade of neighboring countries that may not be directly involved in any conflict. The impact increases with conflict duration, and is persistent on average, it takes bilateral trade 3-5 years to recover after the end of a regional conflict. (C) 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.