Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lei, Yu-Hsiang; Michaels, Guy
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.06.003
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 139-157
• 关键词: Natural resources; resource curse; Petroleum; armed conflict; Civil war

摘要

We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50%. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points.This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.