Ethnicity and the spread of civil war

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bosker, Maarten; de Ree, Joppe
• 署名单位: Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Utrecht University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.02.002
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 206-221
• 关键词: Civil war; ETHNICITY; Spillover effects

摘要

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) cross-border characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4-6% points. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.