MONETARY POLICY REGIME SWITCHES AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Foerster, Andrew T.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12153
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 211-230
• 关键词: Taylor principle; trend inflation; indeterminacy; models

摘要

This article considers the determinacy and distributional consequences of regime switching in monetary policy. Although switching in the inflation target does not affect determinacy, switches in the inflation response can cause indeterminacy. Satisfying the Taylor principle period by period is neither necessary nor sufficient for determinacy when inflation responses switch; indeterminacy can arise if monetary policy responds too aggressively to inflation in the active regime. Inflation target switches primarily impact the level of inflation, whereas inflation response switches primarily impact the volatility. Expecting an inflation target switch has minor effects on volatility, whereas expecting an inflation response switch raises volatility more substantially.