WHY NOT SETTLE DOWN ALREADY? A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DELAY IN MARRIAGE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Santos, Cezar; Weiss, David
• 署名单位: Getulio Vargas Foundation; Tel Aviv University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12163
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 425-452
• 关键词: consumption commitments; INEQUALITY; cycle; MODEL; insurance; earnings; divorce; FAMILY

摘要

A striking change in American society in the last 40 years has been the decline and delay in marriage. The fraction of young adults who have never been married increased significantly between 1970 and 2000. Idiosyncratic labor income volatility also rose. We establish a quantitatively important link between these facts. If marriage involves consumption commitments, then a rise in income volatility delays marriage. We quantitatively assess this hypothesis vis-a-vis others in the literature. Increased volatility accounts for about 20% of the observed delay in marriage and is strong relative to other mechanisms.