Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Iacovone, Leonardo; Ferro, Esteban; Pereira-Lopez, Mariana; Zavacka, Veronika
• 署名单位: The World Bank; The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; Hertie School; Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.12.005
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 192-204
• 关键词: Exports; crises; Difference-in-difference; Financial dependence

摘要

This paper analyzes the impact of banking crises on manufacturing exports, exploiting the fact that sectors differ in their needs for external financing. Relying on data from 160 developed and developing countries during 1970-2012, we analyze 147 banking crisis episodes and separate their impact on export growth from the impact of other exogenous shocks (e.g., demand shocks, exchange rate shocks). Our findings show that during a crisis, the exports of sectors more dependent on external finance grow significantly less than other sectors. However, this result holds only for sectors that depend on banking finance as opposed to interfirm finance (i.e., trade finance or trade credit). For sectors that depend heavily on banking finance, the effect of banking crises on exports is robust, additional to external demand shocks, and not driven by exchange rate shocks.