Refugees' and irregular migrants' self-selection into Europe

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Poutvaara, Panu
• 署名单位: European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; University of London; King's College London; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102681
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: international migration; refugees; Irregular migrants; self-selection; human capital; Gender differences in migration

摘要

We provide the first large-scale evidence on self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants who arrived in Europe in 2015 or 2016. Our analysis uses unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls. We find that refugees are positively self-selected with respect to human capital, as are female irregular migrants. Male irregular migrants are negatively self-selected. These patterns hold whether analyzing individually stated main reason to emigrate, country-level conflict intensity, or sub-regional conflict intensity. Several additional analyses show that our results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias or liquidity constraints. We offer a theoretical framework to explain these patterns, by extending the Roy-Borjas model to include risks related to staying in an unsafe country of origin, risks related to migration, and gender-specific returns to human capital.