A gravity analysis of refugee mobility using mobile phone data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Beine, Michel; Bertinelli, Luisito; Coemertpay, Rana; Litina, Anastasia; Maystadt, Jean-Francois
• 署名单位: University of Luxembourg; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Macedonia; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; Lancaster University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102618
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Refugee mobility; Gravity model of migration; Forced displacement; Mobile phone data; News media; Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood

摘要

The objective of this study consists in analyzing the determinants of the internal mobility of refugees in Turkey. We track down this mobility relying on geolocalized mobile phone calls data and bring these measures to a micro founded gravity model in order to estimate the main drivers of refugee mobility across 26 regions in 2017. Our results show that the movements of refugees are sensitive to income differentials and contribute therefore to a more efficient allocation of labor across space. Comparing these findings with those of individuals with a non refugee status, we find that refugees are more sensitive to variations of income at origin and to distance, while less responsive to changes in income at destination. These findings are robust to the way mobility is inferred from phone data and to the choice of the geographical unit of investigation. Further, we provide evidence against some alternative explanations of mobility such as the propensity to leave refugee camps, transit through Turkey, social magnet effects and sensitivity to agricultural business cycles.