The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Escamilla-Guerrero, David; Kosack, Edward; Ward, Zachary
• 署名单位: University of St Andrews; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University System of Ohio; Xavier University; Baylor University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: MIGRATION; refugees; Mexican Revolution

摘要

Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history's deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.