Is crime a root cause of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Abreha, Kaleb; Johnson, Trinity; Robertson, Raymond
• 署名单位: Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Texas A&M University System
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: MIGRATION; Crime and violence; poverty; El Salvador; United States

摘要

We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%-67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.