Economic shocks, gender, and populism: Evidence from Brazil

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barros, Laura; Silva, Manuel Santos
• 署名单位: University of Gottingen; Free University of Berlin
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103412
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: economic shocks; ELECTIONS; populism; GENDER

摘要

This paper investigates whether differential exposure to a labor market shock by gender contributed to the rise of far-right populism in Brazil. Using a shift-share approach, we find that gender heterogeneity in shock exposure predicts electoral outcomes. Male-specific labor demand shocks increase support for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election, but female-specific shocks have the reverse effect. These opposing effects are accompanied by an unprecedented gender gap in political preferences, with men becoming relatively more conservative. Our preferred interpretation is that Bolsonaro's conservative rhetoric - shared by several other right-wing populists - generates appeal among men who experience a relative loss in economic status.