In search of the holy grail: Post-intervention effects of an unconditional cash transfer program in Zambia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Handa, Sudhanshu; Tembo, Gelson; Natali, Luisa; Chakrabarti, Averi
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of Zambia; University of Zambia; American Institutes for Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103454
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: cash transfers; social protection; Zambia; Long-term impacts

摘要

The Zambian government's Child Grant Program (CGP) provided unconditional cash transfers to households with young children. Previous evidence from an experimental evaluation while the CGP was in place (2010-2014) showed large, positive program impacts. In this analysis, we use post-program survey data from 2017 to assess whether impacts are sustained. We find that none of the CGP impacts - on outcomes such as food security and child material well-being - persist due to impact fade-out in the treatment group but also catch-up in the control group. Some outcomes (e.g. livestock) stay the same or increase in the treatment group, but they also increase in the control group to the extent that there is convergence. Our results suggest that for households living at the edge of survival, small cash transfers (at US$12 per month) are unlikely to lead to sustained improvements in living standards after the cessation of transfers.